In an article entitled ´Panicked Consultants Fuel Islamic Terror Expansion Throughout Africa – the Kipkorir Ricochet´ (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/76530), I explored the reasons for which Donald Kipkorir, an otherwise shadowy Kenyan lawyer and parasitic gambler, published a shameful text that opposes all concepts and rules of International Law that the lawyer in question should have first studied and second adopted.

The dependence on the Kikuyu militaristic gangs that control the Kenyan army and the paramilitary (the backbone of the dictatorial regime of the ill-fated East African country) prove indeed to be the reason for such a text (republished with my analysis).

Pending my refutation of the paranoid text that reveals only panic and ignorance, I will republish a pertinent rebuttal that an astute Somali commentator, Mr. Adam Zeyla, felt obliged to immediately elaborate and widely publish.

There is more to it, as the lawless lawyer´s friends reacted with threats and insults that help better reveal their ominous face; but this will be the topic of a separate article. For the time being, I was to express my congratulations to Mr. Adam Zayla, and hope that the panicked Kenyan ´authorities´ read twice his down-to-earth analysis.

Kenya's and Ethiopia's Fragile Glass Houses

By Adam Zayla

Amongst others:

http://www.ayyaantuu.com/Oromiyaa/NewsBlog/tabid/36/EntryID/3395/Default.aspx

As I was doing my usual google session in search of news on Somalia, I came across a very amusing article entitled " Why Kenya and Ethiopia ought to annex and divide Somalia" written by Donald B. Kipkorir who advocates as the title suggest the annexation of Somalia by Kenya and Ethiopia. The article is a poor patch work of misinformation and delusional grandeur. I personally feel it's important to bring Mr Kipkorir safely back to earth with a healthy dose of reality. The objective of this reply is to demonstrate how on multiple levels this deluded so-called solution to the Somali problem proposed by Mr Kipkorir has no chance of ever materializing and why Kenya and Ethiopia despite having had the chance to do so never attempted to annex Somalia since the collapse of the Somali government and the disintegration of the Somali army. Prior to the collapse of the former and the disintegration of the latter, both Somali institutions for decades were Ethiopia's and Kenya's worst nightmares. Fearing Somali military power both countries even the decided to sign a joint defense-pact in the 1970s. One therefore wonders why Kenya and Ethiopia after the death of both of these Somali institutions didn't simply walk into Somalia and implemented Mr Kipkorir's brilliant plan. The reason is very simple; they didn't because of the shaky foundations both countries themselves are build on. Kenya and Ethiopia despite having governments and a unlimited flow of western aid continue to walk on thin ice when it comes to their disgruntled ethnic groups and any policy that's not decided or supported by Washington has a zero percent chance of succeeding

Ethiopia-Kenya's nightmare scenario; disintegration along ethnic lines

A civil war similar to what happened in Somalia in the early 90's in either Kenya or Ethiopia will be the end of both countries. Somalia had it's civil war - and is currently experiencing turmoil courtesy of the United States - but it's still not the end of Somalia. Even if all the many peaceful Somali regions in Somalia today became their own independent states, somewhere down the line when stability arrives to other sections of the country (which happened during the ICU period) it wouldn't take long before the union of the now independent and internationally recognized break away countries of old Somalia were re-integrated in a New Somalia especially when all the previous minor indifferences and mistakes of the past were settled. But for Kenya and Ethiopia a civil war resulting in all these different countries (currently held prison due to colonial interference) breaking free will mean they will never EVER return to their previous status i.e. part of either Kenya or Ethiopia. Eritrea is a good example of this; Ethiopia brutally annexed Eritrea in the 1960s and had decades to provide the Eritrean people with positive signs of development but because of the arrogance and superiority complex of the Ethiopian regime the Eritreans saw their situation and standard of living going backwards and so they decided to fight for their well deserved right for self determination. Today's Eritrea regardless what one might say of it's government is a progressing country with a young and optimistic population that is doing much better without Ethiopia and because of this will never EVER even entertain the thought of uniting with Ethiopia. Somalia on the other hand; if it's peaceful regions such as Puntland, Somaliland and other states were to become their own countries (as I noted before) the prospect of a new Union is far higher here than a new union for a disintegrated and collapsed Kenya or Ethiopia. Many of the ministers of these Somali States were part of the Pan-Somalist regimes of Somalia and therefore still have a soft spot for the Greater Somalia concept and same goes for their populations.

Let's start with Ethiopia a country full of ethnic armies with secessionist aspirations and large parts of the country have basically become war zones. In their quest to defeat the military state of Ethiopia these liberation armies represent legitimate oppressed countries such as Oromia, Sidama, the Afar and Ogaden regions that are currently locked up in the backwards prison called Ethiopia. These countries in a new Ethiopian civil war would follow the same path as Eritrea and would be gone forever once the prison doors are opened - either voluntarily or through force. Kenya has it's own inter-ethnic problems which made headlines world wide. Innocent people burned in churches, thousands of people killed and hacked to death, 200 thousand people displaced. One wonders how such unstable countries could ever solve Somalia's problems when there own problems are just as severe if not worse. Somalia has nothing to lose, all that could go wrong, went wrong and still Somalia has not and will not after a decade of Anarchy suffer the same destiny as a future Anarchy Kenya or an Anarchy Ethiopia would suffer - which could happen anytime of the year. Their many disgruntled and marginalized ethnic groups currently waging war is evidence of how fast the scenario of widespread Anarchy in both Kenya and Ethiopia could materialize into reality once the wealthy wells of the West have dried up.

Potential reality or simply a Pipedream?

This ridiculous article that was written by Mr Donald Kipkorir - who is trying very hard to emulate his western masters by attempting to walk in shoes to big for him - gives the impression that both Ethiopia and Kenya have the necessary resources to occupy Somalia. Nothing could be further from the truth. Both are extremely poor countries. Even with western support occupying Somalia is a pipe dream. Half of Ethiopia's current invading army that was nurtured and funded by the United States is buried in Somali soil and with all it's US military hardware it still cannot control a few neighborhoods in Mogadishu let alone Somalia. The Islamist army on the other hand is currently reigning supreme in Southern Somalia and is becoming stronger as each day passes by. How could the small and poorly equipped Kenyan army ever succeed where the heavily western backed Ethiopian army failed? Then you have Puntland and Somaliland who have their own military forces equipped with excellent Soviet military hardware such as Tanks and anti-aircraft from the now disintegrated military of Somalia, with a combined army size of 40-50 thousand men. How could Kenya that can't even cope with the Ethiopian military raids in Moyale, the Shiftas in the Northeastern region ever secure Somalia? How could Kenya that could not protect it's citizens from brutal hacking sprees during the election crisis and today still cannot protect hard working Kenyan merchants from the Munguki Mafia that is roaming free - ever secure a country like Somalia? This proposed annexation of Somalia could backfire terribly and see both Kenya and Ethiopia completely disintegrate and parts of it's territory swallowed up by Somalia. Another interesting question regarding Kenya is; what would the reaction be of high ranking Somali officers in the Kenyan army? Would Kenya's minister of defense who himself is a Somali tolerate such a suicide mission? Kenya was saved many times over the last decades from a horrible civil war due to the actions of a 'loyal' Somali officer case in point being; Major General Mahmoud saving Kenyan President Moi from a coup d' etat in the 1980s. This loyalty would disappear instantly if Mr Kipkorir's plan was actually realized and this loss of Somali loyalty could have severe consequences to Kenya's future as a country.

What do Kenya or Ethiopia have to offer to Somalia economically?

Now that the military aspect of the proposed annexation has been refuted and utterly destroyed, let's just put that aside and just play along with Mr Kipkorir's pipe dream and imagine that both Kenya and Ethiopia have successfully annexed Somalia. Are Ethiopia and Kenya capable of feeding the population of Somalia and have they found a solution for their own immense food shortages? Facts on the ground look grim and both Ethiopia and Kenya are not self sufficient countries but rely heavily on foreign aid and subsidies from wealthy western countries to feed their populations and in Kenya's case most of the meat and agricultural products consumed there comes from Somalia. Somali livestock projection to Kenya saw an increase of 600 percent after the collapse of Kenya's domestic livestock market( so who's feeding who?). In the critically acclaimed economic paper entitled Somalia After State Collapse it is highlighted how Somalia's nomadic population fared much better than Kenya's nomadic population during periods of drought. Kenya's herders saw more then half of their livestock perish in drought. Again how could any sane person even dare to suggest Kenya which cannot support it's own nomadic and urban citizens - to annex it's neighbor Somalia that actually manages to take care of it's own population? Shouldn't Mr Kipkorir be more concerned with the fact that Kenya with all it's patron Western donors and with no serious war raging is still failing to provide for the nomadic Masai population, the Turkana population, the Somali population, the Borana population and the Kalenjin population within its borders?

Do both countries have anything to offer to the citizens of Somalia and is the standard of living in Kenya and Ethiopia higher than that of Somalia? facts on the ground again say a firm NO!; Somalia has a higher GDP per capita than Ethiopia. In the aforementioned paper, Somalia After State Collapse, Somalia is compared to 42 African countries where the economists eventually come to the conclusion that Somalia has made greater progress than most African countries with governments in the last decade and it's standard of living generally improved Somalia is the only country in East Africa to have increased it's life expectancy (only 3 countries in Africa managed to do this). Off all the countries in the Horn of Africa Somalia has the most universities in the top 100 of Africa. Somalia has the lowest HIV rate in Sub Saharan Africa which stands in stark contrast to Kenya and Ethiopia who are both suffering from AIDS epidemics. Somalia is far ahead of Kenya and Ethiopia when it comes to Telecommunications. Ethiopia a nation of 80 million people only has 100 thousand internet subscribers compared to the 10 million strong Somalia that has 500 thousand internet subscribers.[18] In Somalia it only takes three days to get a landline installed compared to Kenya where this process can take years.

But what about the refugees fleeing Somalia and it's impact on Kenya? well they have no other choice due to the wars instigated by western powers securing their own personal interests by arming warlords. These refugees return as soon as stability arrives in the regions they hail from as we have seen with the return of Somalis to stable regions such as Somaliland and Puntland and the Islamist take over in 2006 which saw a large influx of both expats and Somalis internally displaced during the 1990s returning to the capital. The current Islamist advance that's crippling the Ethiopian army and as a result directly frustrating the United States Africa Command plans on Somalia means it will take some time before stability resembling the brief period of ICU rule in 2006 returns and therefore people will continue to flee and southern Somalia will remain a hotspot. But Kenya has nothing to complain about; these same refugees are fueling the Kenyan economy. Somalis from Somalia have turned the previous slum called Eastleigh into a wealthy commercial center in Nairobi that according to experts is becoming Kenya's biggest entrepot for commerce and trade.

Conclusion

Kenya and Ethiopia have neither the military capability nor the economic self sufficiency to occupy or annex Somalia hence the whole concept being a pipedream. Kenya and Ethiopia face inter-ethnic strife that when fueled by a third party could turn into a ugly full blown civil war that could see both countries go the way of Yugoslavia or the more recent example being; the Soviet Union. With most of East Africa today being dependent on Somali merchants it's not hard to put two and two together and process who this third party might be. Kenya and Ethiopia in many sectors perform poorly compared to Somalia and policies that could see progress in these sectors and uplift the living standards of the average citizens of Kenya and Ethiopia are legitimate subjects Mr Kipkorir should write about.

The following popular saying is a very fitting end to this article: "Don't throw stones if you live in a glass house".

Adam Zayla can be contacted here: adamzayla@hotmail.com

Note

Picture: No one will prevent the rise of a Greater Somalia that will terminate the parasitic and tyrannical existence of the colonial relics, Abyssinia and Kenya.