A Perilous Impasse in
Somalia
CabdiRisaaq
Xaaji Xuseen
Ra'iisul
Wasaare Soomaaliya: 14 Jun 1964 - 15 Jul 1967 |
It has been more than
eight months since the TFG was established in Nairobi,
but the leadership has yet to translate that mandate
into a functioning government inside the country. Keen
observers consider the pattern of developments to mirror
that which followed all previous peace conferences and
fear the fate of the TFG might be as grim as earlier
dispensations. As the causes for past failures are well
known they do not require further elucidation.
Since a better
alternative can hardly be improvised at this stage, it
is vital that every effort should be made to turn a
calamitous civil war into a win for all of us by
transforming the nominal TFG into a functioning
transitional government. Four factors mark the rift that
divides the two political camps, apart from the unspoken
tribalistic sentiments that fuel inherent mistrust.
These are:
- Relocation of
government to the capital, Mogadishu, or elsewhere
due to the lack of security;
- Deployment of
foreign troops, including/excluding those from
Frontline States;
- Deployment of a
garrison of armed militias from Puntland, at the
behest of President Abdullahi Yususf, in Jawhar/Baidoa
to ensure President/government security;
- Accusations and
counter-accusations of weapons smuggling into the
country between President Abdullahi Yusuf and some
Mogadishu-based faction leaders, in violation of the
U.N. Security Council’s Arms Embargo Resolutions on
Somalia.
This essay briefly
describes the challenges and proposes ways of resolving
them.
Relocation
It is legitimate to
insist that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)
should be relocated to the capital – Mogadishu – and not
elsewhere, as stipulated in the Transitional Federal
Charter. But, security and peace in Mogadishu and
vicinity is a necessary prerequisite for such relocation
to occur. Over the last few months a beginning has been
made in securing the city. Civics, and more crucially,
faction leaders, members of the government and
parliamentarians have been engaged in removing militias
from the city. This is a painstaking work and the
aforementioned agents deserve our commendation for their
continuing effort to rid the city of private militias.
But this endeavor has a long way to go and those who
have the cards in their hand must scale up their effort
to eliminate all the roadblocks, free-lance gangs and
organized militias within the next two months before
Mogadishu could legitimately claim to be the nation’s
capital. All these should be done in good faith and in
the belief that without it national reconstruction would
remain an illusion.
If peace-making in
Mogadishu is successful, the President, parliament and
government would have no legitimate choice but to embark
on rebuilding Somalia’s public authority and
institutions right in the capital. President Abdullahi
Yusuf’s words and deeds, from the start, have
unnecessarily made reconciliation more complicated. He
has made no attempt to use his office to bring people
together to facilitate the government’s relocation in
Mogadishu. He has pinned his hopes and those of the
nation only on the intervention of foreign troops,
particularly from Ethiopia. In addition, he also made
many provocative statements that have alienated most of
the public and deepened mistrust among groups. Likewise,
most opponents of the President both in the parliament
and government have opportunistically transformed
national issues into self-serving and clanistic
gimmicks. The irresponsible pursuit of the President’s
strategy or those of his opponents will precipitate a
nasty civil war and open up deep new wounds.
Security
In the absence of a
national security force(s) that could adequately
guarantee security in Mogadishu, it will be foolhardy to
contemplate relocating the incipient organs of
government in such an environment. Realistically, it
will take at least a year, given current conditions, to
create a nucleus of sufficiently trained, equipped, and
mentally de-tribalized police force. Character and
competence are foundational qualities for an effective
security force and consequently, non-partisan
professionals must guide the establishment of this vital
national force. In this regard, it is worth recalling of
the reported British Government’s offer to assist
Somalia in training its new national police force.
Foreign Troops
Deployment
There is a general
consensus, baring some dissidents in Mogadishu, that the
deployment of foreign troops is essential in order to
help secure Mogadishu, jumpstart the peace-making
process, and enable the TFG/TFA to consolidate its
authority. However, different viewpoints on where such
troops have to come from have been expressed. President
Abdullahi made no mystery of his preference for
Ethiopian troops although he has lately accepted troops
from any other countries In contrast, the vast majority
of the Somali public is strongly opposed to Ethiopian
troops deployment in Somalia under any pretext. The
public is mindful of the long Somali-Ethiopian conflict
and suspects that the President’s hidden and insidious
agenda for insisting on Ethiopian intervention. The
public’s unequivocal stance has so far failed to have
any perceptible impact on the President’s wish. Despite
these disagreements, it is essential to have neutral
foreign troops in the country until such a time that a
professional and representative Somali force can command
public order. Somali leaders on both sides of the
political divide should agree on this and hence jointly
request the African Union to expedite the dispatch of
the already promised 1,700 Ugandan and Sudanese troops
to Somalia, and offers from other countries should also
be welcomed. In the final analysis, we should realize
that it is for us to put our house in order. We need not
forget that the mission and statue of the foreign troops
should be limited and carefully circumscribed. The
temporary nature of the peacekeeping mission is designed
to complement our own efforts and Somalis and their
leaders must face the challenge.
Deployment of Puntland
militias
It appears that
President Abdullahi Yusuf intends to deploy armed
militias form Puntland to confront his opponents in
Mogadishu. It is reported that a convoy of well-equipped
militias are enroute to Jowhar. This has further
heightened tensions and could rekindle a more sinister
phase of civil war. Most people in the Mogadishu and
other Somalis consider the deployment of Puntland
militias in and around the capital to be tantamount to a
clan-based invasion. The faction leaders and others in
Mogadishu intend to fiercely respond to what they deem
to be an illegitimate attack. Both Abdullahi Yusuf and
the faction leaders in Mogadishu need to recollect that
the late Somali dictator thought that he could subjugate
the nation by tribalizing state institutions and
particularly the armed forces. The factionalist
opposition imagined that it could topple the tyrannical
order and remake the nation by employing the same
tactics. Unfortunately that strategy has turned a crisis
into a calamity. The people in the northeast must not be
fooled into a destructive and futile adventure.
Weapons Smuggling
It is criminal for
anyone, let alone those entrusted with national
salvation, to smuggle in and amass weapons destined for
sectarian use. I call upon all those directly or
indirectly involved in this dirty work to forthwith and
unconditionally put an end to such a senseless mania of
gun-running, and instead solve their differences through
peaceful and negotiated means. I call upon the
international community to take necessary action against
those who smuggle weapons into Somalia, and to warn all
parties to the conflict not to resort to violent
confrontations as way of solving internal political
problems. The Somali people deserve to be free from
violence and the world has a humanitarian obligation not
to let merchants of violence destroy millions of lives
and the future of entire people without being held
accountable.
A Warning for the Ages
The Somali public must
embrace a peace agenda as the current speaker of
parliament recently articulated. The TFG institutions
are vehicles for reconciliation and as such must seek
peaceful solutions to our political problems. The
Mogadishu faction leaders and Abdullahi Yusuf must
recognize that if reconciliation is to be sustained it
will require a win-win outcome. By its nature a
compromise is a peaceful agreement and the use of
violence is an anathema in such an accord. The faction
leaders can not hold Mogadishu, and by implication the
country, hostage as they have done over the last decade,
and Abdullahi Yusuf can not violently impose himself on
the country as he has done in the northeast. He can not
claim to be president for all of Somalia and at same
time organize clan based militias as a national force.
Such behavior is exactly what destroyed Somalia’s
government and is unlikely to set an inclusive
foundation for a lasting peace and national
reconstruction.
Accordingly, the
faction leaders in the capital must withdraw their
militias from the city and put them under the control of
a neutral third party (the Africa force, excluding
Ethiopia). Second, the international community must
urgently support the African force to be deployed
without delay. Further, the international community
should provide food for work to the encamped militias
and to give this first phase of reconciliation a chance
to succeed. Third, Abdullahi Yusuf and the TFG should
relocate in Mogadishu once the African force secures the
capital without bringing clan based militias from
outside. Finally, the rule of law and the art of
compromise must govern further development. Any attempt
to use force for particularistic political ends will
ruin whatever promise this last conference has
engendered. I urge all Somalis who care about our
destiny, and particularly those in Banadir and the
northeast to say no to political violence and clan
politics.
Abdirazak H. Hussen
Prime Minister 1964-67
E-mail:
Hussen100@yahoo.com
July 2005
Daabaco
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