The Quixotic Invasion of Somalia Will Devastate Kenya
A Digital Essay by Onyango Oloo in Nairobi
Oct 24, 2011
Let me start with a WARNING:
The link below contains very graphic, gory and disturbing images: Those forlorn, bloated young corpses roasting in the scorching Somali sun could
very well be the remains of recently expired Kenyan combat troops. There has been a lot of fervent flag waving, agitated anthem intoning and cheesy
chest thumping over the last few days all across the country. Nairobi-based television anchors have exchanged their ill-fitting suits for
equally bizarre military fatigues in a pathetic attempt to reprise the recurring
martial misadventures of the CNN and BBC superstars like Christiane Anampour,
Nic Robertson et al. The hyped up Kenyan jingoism and misplaced machismo and boisterous braggadocio
has left an overwhelming feeling ravaging through my body: A sense of nausea and profound disgust. Excuse me while I throw up. As our preening neo-colonial chieftains, who get their talking points from
Washington, London ,Brussels and other capitals of capital, try to out Bush Bush
and out Blair Blair in banging the drums of war and clanging the cymbals of
foreign intervention , the hapless wananchi are reduced to an abject bleating
national choir of meek sheep endorsing every propaganda sound byte of the
cynical war mongers in cabinet and the self-serving parliament. First things first. This war is UNNECESSARY. It is ILLEGAL. It is FAKE. It is DOOMED TO FAIL.
Why is it UNNECESSARY?
What ostensibly “provoked” the impulsive invasion of Somalia by armed to the
teeth Kenyan military troops was a CRIMINAL act involving the kidnapping of a
couple of foreigners by bandits who could even turn out to be KENYANS, the
assumption that they are definitely Somali born, bred and based Al Shabaab
militants notwithstanding. The response which could have been apt was a POLICE response; not an uncalled
for massive military operation for crying out loud! The details of this
suggested police intervention need not have precluded covert coordination with
our security organs-Kenyan and non-Kenyan. Why is this war ILLEGAL? The supreme law in Kenya is the CONSTITUTION. What does the Kenyan constitution say?
State of emergency
58. (1) A state of emergency may be declared only under Article 132 (4) (d)
and only when—
(a) the State is threatened by war, invasion, general insurrection,
disorder, natural disaster or other public emergency;
Role of the National Assembly
95. (6) The National Assembly approves declarations of war and extensions of
states of emergency
Term of Parliament
102. (2) When Kenya is at war, Parliament may, by resolution supported in
each House by at least two-thirds of all the members of the House, from time
to time extend the term of Parliament by not more than six months at a time.
Functions of the President
132. (4) The President may –
(d) subject to Article 58, declare a state of emergency
(e) with the approval of Parliament, declare war.
Everyone knows
what happened. The minister for internal security flanked by his ministry of
defence counterpart informed Kenyans through a press conference that Kenya was
at war, in total violation of the constitutional provisions. Why is it FAKE? Because Kenyans have been lied to. Contrary to the impression that this is an angry national reaction to a recent
provocation, the fact of the matter is that this military operation has been in
the planning pipeline for quite some time. According to impeccable sources who are quite familiar with the inside workings
of Kenya’s military, intelligence and security machinations, what is happening
in Somalia is part of a detailed and coordinated IGAD joint intervention in
Somalia with specific roles for Ethiopia, the Transitional Federal Government in
Mogadishu, the African Union troops and the Kenyan military. A story published in the October 28, 2011 issue of the Africa Report cites the
Kenyan political leadership at the highest echelons admitting that an earlier
plan to go after Al-Shabaab covertly from Kenya using specially trained elite
forces recruited from the Kenyan ethnic Somali population floundered after most
of these recruits DESERTED after their training. Far from this incursion into Somalia being propelled by a patriotic Kenyan
desire to defend the country it turns out that we are just pawns in the larger
US/NATO geo-political agenda to “stabilize” the Horn of Africa region in line
with the wider imperialist agenda of consolidating world monopoly capital which
has of late been buffeted by a severe crisis in the United States itself, the
meltdown of the Euro in Europe and growing protests by the burgeoning global
Occupy Wall Street inspired citizen mass actions. There is a connection between
the Kenyan military foray into Oddo, Kismayu and other towns and the NATO led
bombing of Libya and the ultimate brutal slaughter of Colonel Muamar Ghadaffi
and his loyalists in Sirte. Closer home, the military misadventure in Somalia may provide the excuse for
some of these Kenyan political criminals in power to go for a horrendous cash
grab to bolster the 2012 war chest for their various presidential bids. Think about it: What is the LEAST TRANSPARENT aspect of the Kenyan budgetary process? Allocating funds to the military and national intelligence and security
services. Using the guise and pretext of safeguarding some undefined “national security
interests”, the mandarins in the Treasury, the well-connected technocrats and
securocrats at DOD, the back room boys at State House, the appartchiks at the
various party headquarters and the merchants of impunity in parliament and the
errand boys in the civil service could very well conspire to STEAL BILLIONS OF
KENYAN TAX PAYERS’ SHILLINGS with the excuse that these funds are paying for the
operations in Somalia. On a related note, a close friend of mine told me the other day that some of the
ICC connected players in PNU and ODM are blackmailing Prime Minister Raila
Odinga into being part of this Somalia circus because they hope to DELAY or EVEN
POSTPONE next year’s Presidential and General Elections hoping to buy time in
case any of the Ocampo Six are confirmed for trial at the ICC. By declaring a CONVENTIONAL military offensive against a loose militia with a
penchant for GUERRILLA tactics, it is apparent that the Kenyan government has
NOT learned anything from the last fifty years of contemporary conflicts- from
Vietnam, through Northern Ireland, Guinea Bissau, Mozambique, Eritrea, Uganda,
Iraq to Colombia. The Kenyan regime could prove very gullible ideologically to the machinations of
Al Shabaab. Remember, Kenyans in the north and among sections of the country's
Muslim population may be vulnerable and even receptive to overtures from pro-Al
Qaeda and Al Shabaab elements who may portray the conflict with the Kenyan state
in RELIGIOUS terms as a Jihad against pro-Western infidels headquartered in
Nairobi. There have been credible reports of KENYANS being recruited or acting
as recruiters for both Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda. Tactically it might not be very wise to unleash all this machismo and
braggadocio with reckless talk of "bring it on". Remember the kind of people who
join outfits like Al Shabaab see themselves as martyrs to higher spiritual
causes who are quite ready and more than willing to strap themselves with
explosives and blow themselves up as suicide bombers so it will take more than
threats of tanks and fighter jets to cow them into abject submission. Below is an excerpt from a Somaliland blog carrying an opinion piece by Dr,
Dirrir Ali which might prove interesting reading for Kenyans
Long before
Restore Hope, the joint UN and USA humanitarian campaign in Somalia in early
1990s, a consultant to the UNO on Somalia, advised the USA administration to
attempt everything else but not war with Somalis, in his opinion; war is the
thing Somalis know best. The USA did not heed to that precious advice and we
all remember the way that campaign went wrong – it ended with the famous
Black hawk down and that was the last USA chapter of waging war in Somalia –
at least an open and all out ground war. That UNO consultant is called Mr.
John Drysdale. He knew the closing stages of the campaign even before it was
waged. He was not a fortune teller; Mr. Drysdale was some one who had first
hand experience of what Somalis are capable to accomplishing in the war
field. He was the British administrator of Somaliland more than four decades
prior to the debut of that campaign.
The Ethiopians were not dissuaded by the USA experience in Somalia. They did
not either learn much from their centuries-old wars with Somalis and with
the help of the USA air power, they too attacked and captured Mogadishu, but
their victory did not last for too long and they were also compelled to a
humiliating withdrawal after Somalis taught them a lesson in urban and
guerrilla warfare.
Now it appears that the Kenyans did not learn much about the history of
Somali warfare. In my opinion they too have made very bad miscalculations
and do not understand that all Somalis are not the murderous Al-shabaab
group and the Transitional Federal government. The Somali population is not
the weak and famine-devastated thousands that live in refugee camps in the
Northern Frontier district (NFD), which it self is a Somali region given to
Kenya in the early sixties, after Kenya gained its independence from
Britain. NFD is one of the five Somali territories represented in the star
on the Somalia flag. Besides NFD, the other four Somali territories are
Somalia, The Republic of Djibouti, The self administered Somali region in
Ethiopia and the Republic of Somaliland.
The Kenyans fancy to believe that they could win a war and defeat Somalis,
it is passable for them to accept as true what they believe, but the truth
of the matter is they are playing with inextinguishable fire – a greater
Somali fire. By starting a war in this region can easily instigating Somalis
to reclaim their Northern Frontier District (NFD). Therefore, I brotherly
advise the Kenyans to withdraw immediately before Somalis beat the drums of
war, believe me that will not be a good sign for the Kenyans. To give you an
example of what that could mean; the recent Kenyan civil unrest will feel
just like a picnic in warm summer day on Mount Kilimanjaro.
Since its independence from Italy, Somalia is wounded by civil war, famine,
terrorism and corrupt incompetent consecutive regimes, but Somalis are far
from death and are strong enough to inflict an ever lasting damage to an
aggressor. They are also blessed with Muslim and Arab brethren, who will not
hesitate to assist them to rebel all enemies from all Somali territories.
Kenyans have no business crossing the borders to Somalia; it is illegal
under International law and it is morally wrong. If they have beef with
Al-Shabaab then they must fight them in their own territory and not inside
Somalia. Kenyans must not arrogantly over estimate their economic and
military power and must keep in mind, that only Somalis are capable of
defeating Somalis and no body else. They must bear in mind that their
country is very easily susceptible to be fractured through ethnic and tribal
lines. By starting a war with Somalis Kenyan economy and tourist industry
can be devastated within hours. It must realize that it can not win the wars
lost by super powers. Kenya must not be fooled by the guys who call
themselves the TFG of Somalia; these guys lack morality, education,
experience and live their lives under the protection of the Ugandan forces
tanks in their home – Mogadishu. They can be bought and sold in a junk yard.
If the Kenyans trust the strategic analysis of these TFG guys then they are
deficient in judgement.
Somalis know too well the illegal Somalia territorial water’s concession
made to Kenya by the illegal and morally corrupt TFG. Somalis are aware of
the Azania project that is established by Kenyans through a mercenary force
headed by Mr. Gandi, a power Hungary opportunist. Somalis quite appreciate
Kenya’s geopolitical ambitions, both short and long term strategies. By
looking at realities on the ground, these Kenyan dreams are far from
becoming true. Kenyans politicians must clear their heads of the myths and
wrong assumptions. They are not able to conquer more territories from
Somalis, but instead the Northern Frontier District might go back to hands
of Somalis.
In recent years Kenya was enrich with not only the looting of the Somalia’s
International assistance through the NGOs operated mafia that consider the
humanitarian assistance, war and drought confounded Somalis as their
personal spoils of war. Not only that, but Kenya is also benefiting from
Somalis who bring with them capital, technical and business expertise to
that corruption riddle East African country. Somalis have both directly &
indirectly created jobs for millions of Kenyans. Thus, Kenya benefited from
Somalia more than any country in the world. For those simple reasons,
Kenyans should be grateful to the Somalis and must not try to slaughter the
goose that laid the golden eggs. Kenyans and for that matter any other
neighbouring country must think twice before they venture to play with
Somali fire; it will never die very easily. Somalis might consider moving
their businesses and investments from Kenya to neighbouring Republic of
Somaliland and The Republic of Djibouti. Both Somaliland and Djibouti are
eager to receive their Somali brethren and their investments with open
hearts. The United Nations and the donor countries might also consider
moving their offices to the more peaceful and politically stable Somaliland,
since Kenya is not able to provide security to the foreign diplomats,
expatriates and tourists in its country.
Yusuf Dirir Ali
On the broader geo-political front, the announcement of Saitoti, Haji and the
war mongers in the Kenyan cabinet could be a stratagem signalled at the fascist
US and NATO military-industrial complex that the PNU side of the Grand Coalition
government is gung ho about the much discredited "War on Terror" with a view of
gaining traction with the so called "international community" (a convenient nick
name for the Western powers) as a defender of "security" and "stability" of the
East African and Horn of Africa restive region. But this could backfire if the zealots in Al Shabaab appeal to their extremist
allies in Pakistan, Afghanistan and nearby Yemen that they are under threat from
a hostile client regime in Nairobi- triggering a devastating wave of urban
terrorist reprisals targeting civilian populations in places like Mombasa,
Kisumu, Nakuru, Eldoret, Nairobi and the like-not ignoring business,
infrastructure and military targets. They are those who will react with shock at my views expressed in this digital
essay. Some will find me "unpatriotic". Some will scream that I be prosecuted for TREASON. Well, I am in good company. The Chief Justice of Kenya was once detained without trial allegedly because he
was deemed "unpatriotic" by our retired dictator. The Prime Minister of Kenya was almost hanged after being accused of TREASON. I was among dozens of peaceful pro-democracy social justice activists who spent
long years behind bars on SEDITION charges because we dared to speak TRUTH to
POWER. We counterpose our genuine LOVE for our Motherland Kenya to the fake nationalism
of the war mongers. Our commitment to the freedom, liberation and emancipation of all Kenyans from
neo-colonialism and imperialism preceded and will outlast these synthetic
screeches covering up the local elite's attempt to be the slaves of Uncle Sam
and her NATO cousins in this part of Africa and the world. We will continue fighting for peace, democracy, equality, social justice and Pan
African liberation in the spirit of Internationalist Solidarity and Third World
Liberation. A Lutta Continua! Onyango Oloo
Nairobi
Source:
http://demokrasia-kenya.blogspot.com/
Faafin: SomaliTalk.com | Oct 24, 2011
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